Posts Tagged ‘Sales’

Sales Rank Stats Return and Algorithm Updates

Wednesday, November 9th, 2011

Sales Rank Stats

After many months of being restricted to the last 30-60 days, Sales Rank Stats have returned! Head over to a book’s details page (e.g. Example) and you can click the line titled Sales Rank Stats to show the book’s best, worst, average, and standard deviation in each domain that is being tracked. This information is updated the first time you access the page, and then will automatically update itself every 30 days. Unfortunately, real-time updating was making the page load very slowly, thus the 30 day cache was built. This should return page loading to < 2 seconds 99% of the time.

It make take up to a minute to load the page for the first time!

I’ve turned up the power on the server to hopefully speed things up (it’s at max, which is ~$7/day) while everyone (including search engines) forces the statistics to be calculated. You may see some erratic slowness across the site while this occurs.

Sales Estimate Algorithm

After feedback and testing, I’ve improved the new algorithm to use tighter statistical analysis of sales rank changes. It is also now attempting to estimate for sales occurring when a book holds its rank (e.g. 700 last hour, 705 next hour) without improving. This is only for sales rank < 1000, but is also based upon the statistical median. Translation: It’s smart enough to deal with the differences between each Amazon domain as well as the Kindle or print distinction. Not only is it better than the last system I used, but it learns each day how to get better!

Final Note

These changes conclude the upgrades to NovelRank’s core that officially started on November 1st (but have been planned for months). As usual, I’ll keep an eye on things and make adjustments as necessary, but I think you can consider this NovelRank 2.0!

If you run into any problems like weird errors or broken pages, please let me know by sending an email to admin [at] novelrank {dot} com.

Major Update: Sales Estimates and Overall Speed

Monday, November 7th, 2011

For the first week of November 2011, I went through the process of migrating 400,000,000 sales rank records into a new database system, in an effort to improve the performance of NovelRank, especially when you requested large amounts of data (e.g. charting). As of today, that migration was completed and NovelRank was updated (I didn’t eat today… it’s been a long day) to use this new system in 95% of requests. I didn’t think there would be as many problems as there were, thus why many of you reported strange changes hour-to-hour in your data. All of that should be resolved and the system mostly stable.

One big change is that as of Nov 1, sales estimates are being processed through a much more accurate (but not perfect) statistically based system for estimating the number of sales that occur per hour. The system still has a weakness for inaccuracy with a sales rank < 500 due to being based on sales rank changes, but it is a lot more accurate for Kindle Edition books, especially those not on Amazon.com. Due to some feedback today however, it seems that for some titles with sales rank < 500, it was still likely to be underestimating (and could be improved). I’ve made a tweak going forward that should increase sales estimates for those popular titles. I’ll continue to monitor the results throughout the month. This new system is constantly learning and reevaluating what constitutes a sale for a particular book/ebook, and it’s accuracy is increasing daily.

Please be aware that your sales estimates MAY HAVE CHANGED TODAY for the month of November as NovelRank was displaying the OLD sales estimates prior to today, while recording both the old and the NEW estimates (which are now being displayed).

There are still some issues with speed when calculating your BEST, WORST, and AVERAGE sales rank causing massive slowdown using the new system. For now, these calculations are still based on the old database structure, and I’ll be working this week to try and solve this problem. The end goal is to keep the speed and performance of NovelRank high and remove the downtime that occurs for a few hours every 2-3 months as well as for 30 minutes every evening at 1pm Pacific Time.

Finally, for those using the iPhone App, 40% of the data provided is from the old system (to keep the performance quick). Later this week you may see the stats change to ‘n/a’ for STD and AVG information as that data will be removed. I’ll be working with the App creator to see if an update is possible after the changes have been made.

Thanks again for using NovelRank, and I hope that it continues to be a useful tool in every authors arsenal.

Update: Nov 9, 2011

Some new fixes and adjustments have been put in place based on feedback. The system is now much tighter with the sales estimation algorithm, as well as it attempts to calculate sales for ‘holding rank’ when books have a sales rank that is better than 1000. As usual, estimates for popular titles will still be underestimated due to limitations of sales rank tracking.

Lesson Learned: Financial Motivations will Affect Book Sales

Tuesday, April 26th, 2011

50 Conversation Starters Book Cover
Whether your intentions are good and your talents exceptional, if your motivations for writing are strictly financial, your book sales will suffer. Period.

It’s humbling, and it is hard, but it’s a lesson to be learned by established authors and new authors alike. A few months ago, I noticed that there was a price gap in the listed e-books for conversation starters or ‘book of questions’ style books. There were no books under $9.99, and thus nothing at the impulse $2.99 price point. So, since most who know me would agree that this was an area I was talented, I decided to design the type of book that would fit at that price point, write it, test the quality of the conversation starters using Amazon’s Mechanical Turk and a SurveyGizmo survey, and publish it across Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and the Apple bookstores.

Simple right?

  • Find price point
  • Write content
  • Publish
  • Profit!

The problem was my motivation for writing the book. Let’s be clear, I’m not giving up on it just yet (I have some great business cards that advertise the book in a unique way that I can leave around at social events), but the sales have been less than stellar. My goal was 200 sales per month, based upon some competition research and the price point. However, the best sales were the first few months, before 2 not-so-good reviews, and still sales were only at 30 copies per month. At that price point, I was still making more money and feeling better about each sale from my first book. Now, it’s not a direct comparison, because the books are not even in the same market or audience, but that’s not the point of the story.

Be careful of your motivations. Great books, regardless of audience; opportunity; or author, are written because they meet a need and were filled with the passion of the author. Sure, passion doesn’t sell books by itself either, but be careful that your goal isn’t, “To be the next Stephen King.” Rather, write about a topic that speaks to you and others, entertains, and you’ll be proud of when someone picks up a copy. Those are great authors, with smaller, sharper focus, driven by the content, not the dollar sign.

Author Central and NovelRank Sales Rank Tracking Comparison

Monday, December 13th, 2010

On December 10th, Amazon announced a new set of features available for free through Author Central: BookScan sales and historical sales rank data. Naturally, since at first glance these seem to be a similar feature set to what NovelRank offers, I took a look (along with thousands of other authors). After careful analysis, I decided to write this post and help inform current and future NovelRank users about the key differences and benefits. I’ve always said, if there is a 10,000 lb elephant in the room, put the spotlight on it.

First, a few quick links. If you want to read some FAQs about Author Central Sales Info, login to your Author Central Account, or learn more about BookScan, then take a look and then come back here. Otherwise, let me refresh your mind on a few key points.

BookScan data represents Nielsen tracking of 75% of book sales through retail and online providers, as identified through the Amazon provided graphic to the right. Strangely, Amazon is not supplying their actual sales data to their suppliers (i.e. authors), but rather a 3rd party’s data. Granted, it offers a broader scope, but Amazon still is not providing actual data (like it does with Kindle sales for self-publishers through the digital text platform). BookScan data does not track Kindle sales, and thus authors cannot get this data through Author Central.

The sales rank tracking provided is a daily history of sales rank, collected at 11am PST (7am GMT). It goes back as far as October of 2009 or when you joined Author Central, if that date is after October of 2009. This matches NovelRank’s oldest tracking, as it launched in Oct 2009 as well. However, within 24 hours, Sales Rank can fluctuate dramatically providing valuable hourly sales data analysis.

None-the-less, I think there is some great information here, but I’m still happy to have NovelRank. Below is a breakdown of the strengths of each of these services.

Author Central Strengths

  • BookScan data includes retail sailes
  • Geographical data offers touring authors useful data
  • Sales Rank history is available without prior request (as long as you had an Author Central account)
  • 100% reliable sales rank collection from the source

Author Central Weaknesses

  • No sales data for Kindle ebooks
  • Sales data only available for the most recent 4 weeks
  • Only available for Amazon.com (no international support yet)
  • Limited to your own books (no competitor or research tracking)
  • Sales Rank recorded only once per day
  • Data updated weekly (not real-time)

NovelRank Strengths

  • Hourly Sales Rank tracking
  • Support for Amazon UK, Canada, Germany, France, and Japan
  • Ability to track books by others; for competitor or book development research
  • Support for Kindle books on Amazon.com and Amazon.co.uk
  • Historical sales estimates available beyond recent weeks
  • Downloadable sales and Sales Rank history (CSV)
  • RSS feeds, widgets, and other integrations

NovelRank Weaknesses

  • Sales estimates are not 100% accurate
  • Sales estimates are based on only Amazon sales
  • No geographical sales data
  • Sales Rank data only available from when tracking was initiated

I’m excited for the benefits to authors that Amazon is providing, but I’m still thrilled to be offering this free service, NovelRank, to authors and publishers across the world with more specific needs. If you continue to enjoy this service, remember to consider a donation to support it.